BCI Horizon Scan Report 2023
The BCI is pleased to launch the BCI Horizon Scan Report 2023 — a highly anticipated report which examines the incidents that have occurred in organizations over the past year, as well as those of most concern for 2024.
The report uses survey responses and structured interviews with senior resilience professionals to provide an in-depth analysis of this critical area.
2023’s most disruptive events
In 2023, the top disruption for organizations was occupational health incidents, as organizations reported a considerable increase in sickness absences due to occurrences such as stress, depression, and anxiety amongst employees. While the impact of this threat is lower than the other top ten th
reats this year, its high frequency means it tops the list of disruptive events in 2023. The current level of work-related health issues is now higher than those observed pre-pandemic in 2018/19.
The landscape of disruptions changes when analysing with a regional lens: with extreme weather events topping the list of disruptive events in North America and Asia in 2023. Indeed, with China recording an all-time heat record of 52.2oC in July, and the northern hemisphere experiencing its hottest ever summer on record, such concerns are hardly surprising.
While it is important to analyse impacts for horizon scanning purposes, looking at the consequences of these impacts provides deeper insight into the level of damage that a disruption can cause. The greatest impact of disruption this year has been a loss of productivity, rising from second place in 2022. Both health incidents and lost productivity emphasise the importance of the human factor in ensuring an organization’s resilience.
Looking ahead to next year
Non-occupational disease/pandemic is no longer a high concern for organizations, slipping from second place in 2022 to 21st in the 2023 report. Cyber attacks are now firmly top of the list when it comes to the 2024 risk landscape as attacks continue to grow, attack vectors shift, and AI threatens to make the cyber security landscape even more complex. However, while this shifting of non-occupational disease/pandemic to a near-bottom position on the table might be expected, it does emphasise the importance of ensuring that risks which are no longer top of mind are not neglected. Pandemic, for example, is still one of the greatest risks for 2024 according to the UK National Risk Register 2023 and neglecting it in planning, training, and exercising could leave organizations’ resilience exposed.
Climbing the rankings from sixth to second this year and, symptomatic of the rise in related events in 2023, extreme weather events are a significant concern for organizations and are now second in the risk index for 2024.
On top of this, organizations are expecting a continued struggle with the impacts of the increased cost of living, a top risk in 2023 and occupying a similar spot for the coming 12 months as well.
Top 10 risks for organizations in 2024 (as defined by respondents to the BCI Horizon Scan 2023 survey):
|2||Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, freeze, etc.)|
|3||IT and telecom outage|
|4||Increased cost of living|
|5||Interruption to energy supply|
|6||Supply chain disruption|
|7||Natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, etc.)|
|9||Critical Infrastructure failure|
|10||Introduction of new technology (IoT, AI, Big data)|
The BCI Horizon Scan Report 2023 is sponsored by Noggin.
Download BCI Horizon Scan Report 2023